| Course | MGT 570 Advanced Strategic Management |
|---|---|
| Module | Module 2 |
| Paper type | MBA environmental and scenario analysis |
| Length | About 1,076 words, 6 pages |
| Format | APA 7 student paper |
| School | Aspen University |
| Program | Master of Business Administration |
| Updated | October 2026 |
Free sample paper for MGT 570 Module 2
Four Roadside Futures: Scenario Planning for an Outdoor Advertising Company Facing Digital Change and Regulation
Student Name
Master of Business Administration, Aspen University
MGT 570: Advanced Strategic Management
Instructor Name
Month Day, Year
Four Roadside Futures: Scenario Planning for an Outdoor Advertising Company Facing Digital Change and Regulation
Natural State Outdoor, the composite billboard company in Little Rock, Arkansas, whose purpose was redefined in Module 1, must now decide how to invest over the next six years. Its environment is changing. Advertisers increasingly buy digital boards, which show several messages in rotation and can be changed remotely, and digital faces earn several times the revenue of static ones. Online advertising competes for local budgets. States periodically consider stricter rules on highway billboards, especially digital ones, citing driver distraction and scenery. National outdoor companies are consolidating. Traffic patterns shifted after the pandemic as more people work from home. Some of these forces are predictable; others are not.
Levels of Uncertainty
Courtney et al. (1997) argued that managers err when they treat uncertainty as either negligible or overwhelming. They described four levels: a clear-enough future, where a single forecast suffices; alternate futures, a few discrete outcomes; a range of futures, a continuum of possibilities; and true ambiguity. They identified three strategic postures, shaping the industry, adapting to it or reserving the right to play by keeping options open, and three kinds of moves: big bets, options and no-regrets moves that pay off in any future. Natural State faces a range of futures on digital adoption and alternate futures on regulation, depending on legislative outcomes.
Building Scenarios
Schoemaker (1995) described scenario planning as a way to think about multiple futures. The steps include defining the scope and time frame, identifying major stakeholders and basic trends, identifying key uncertainties, constructing initial scenarios from the most important uncertainties, checking them for consistency and using them to test strategies. Scenarios are not predictions; they bound the range of plausible futures so that strategies can be tested against each.
Firm Choices Matter
Rumelt (1991) analyzed the profitability of business units and found that stable differences among business units explained far more variation in profits than industry membership did. The finding is a counterweight to fatalism about industry trends: how Natural State positions itself may matter more than whether outdoor advertising as a whole grows.
Four Scenarios
| Stable billboard regulation | Stricter highway rules | |
|---|---|---|
| Fast digital adoption | Digital Main Street: small advertisers buy digital slots; revenue per face rises | City Screens: highway growth blocked; digital growth shifts to city streets |
| Slow digital adoption | Static Holdouts: local advertisers stick with monthly static boards; national firms win on price | Shrinking Roadside: few new sites; static revenue declines slowly |
The Predictable Trends
Some changes are close to certain and belong in every scenario. Digital boards will keep growing as a share of revenue, because each digital face can carry several advertisers. Advertisers will keep demanding proof that their messages are seen, so audience measurement will become standard. Local businesses will keep splitting budgets between outdoor and online channels. Separating these trends from true uncertainties, as Schoemaker advises, keeps the scenarios focused on what is genuinely unknown.
Why These Two Uncertainties
Many uncertainties could have anchored the scenarios, from interest rates to traffic patterns. Digital adoption and highway regulation were chosen because they matter most to the company's revenue and are the least predictable. A legislative change in one state could freeze new highway permits for years, while the pace at which small advertisers move to digital will decide whether conversion investments pay back in three years or eight.
How Rivals Might Respond
The national outdoor companies in the region are likely to convert their own best faces and offer national advertisers multi-market packages. Rumelt's finding suggests that Natural State's results will depend less on these moves than on its own: its relationships with local businesses, the location of its faces and how well it serves small advertisers.
Choosing Moves
No-regrets moves pay off in every scenario: converting the 60 busiest city faces to digital, improving occupancy reporting and building relationships with local business associations. Options keep doors open at modest cost: securing permits and leases for new city sites before rules tighten and piloting a self-service ordering website in one market. The big bet, to be made only if signposts point toward fast digital adoption, is a full self-service platform letting any business in the three states buy digital slots by the day.
What Each Scenario Would Feel Like
In Digital Main Street, a bakery owner in Fort Smith books three days of digital slots from her phone for a weekend sale, and the company's revenue per face doubles. In City Screens, highway expansion stops, but city digital boards near shopping districts sell out. In Static Holdouts, monthly paper boards remain the norm and the company competes with national firms mostly on service. In Shrinking Roadside, permits freeze and static revenue slowly declines, making efficiency and community relationships essential. Describing each future this way helps managers imagine signals they might see.
Costs of the Moves
Converting the 60 busiest city faces to digital costs about $9 million over three years, financed through equipment loans and expected to pay back in about four years in the middle scenarios. Securing new permits costs mostly staff time and modest lease deposits. The self-service platform, if built, would cost about $1.5 million and is held back until signposts point clearly toward fast digital adoption.
Watching the Signposts
The company will track digital share of advertiser budgets in its markets, pending legislation in each state and the share of revenue from small advertisers, reviewing them every six months.
Postures Across the Scenarios
Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie's postures help frame the company's stance. In the city market, where it holds the best locations, it can act as a shaper, setting the standard for digital slots sold to small businesses. On highways, where regulation may change the game, it should reserve the right to play, keeping permits and leases that preserve options without committing large sums.
Linking to Purpose
The moves chosen also fit the purpose defined in Module 1. Digital slots and self-service ordering make outdoor advertising affordable for small local businesses, which is exactly what the new mission promises, so the strategy and the purpose reinforce each other.
Conclusion
Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie's framework and Schoemaker's method show why Natural State should plan for several futures rather than bet on one forecast, and Rumelt's evidence reminds it that its own choices matter most. No-regrets moves, options and a conditional big bet align the company's investments with both the uncertainties it faces and the purpose it defined.
References
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67-79.
Rumelt, R. P. (1991). How much does industry matter? Strategic Management Journal, 12(3), 167-185. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250120302
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
MGT 570 Module 2 instructions, in plain terms
The environment and how to plan under uncertainty is the focus of Module 2 in Aspen's MGT 570. Papers commonly analyze an organization's external environment, identify the uncertainties that matter most and use them to shape strategy. Follow your classroom's Module 2 instructions; the example continues the company from Module 1. Scan the general and industry environment. Pick out the forces that matter most and are hardest to predict, setting aside the trends that can be forecast. Assess the level of uncertainty using research. Build scenarios with a recognized method, describing each in a few sentences. Choose strategic moves that perform well across scenarios, distinguishing safe moves from options and bets, and say what each would cost. Explain how the company will watch for signs of which future is arriving.
Inside the MGT 570 Module 2 example
The paper continues the strategy work for Natural State Outdoor, whose new purpose emphasizes local businesses. Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie's Harvard Business Review article sets out four levels of uncertainty, the postures of shaper, adapter and reserving the right to play, and moves of big bets, options and no-regrets. Schoemaker's Sloan Management Review article describes scenario planning steps. Rumelt's Strategic Management Journal study found business-unit effects explained more profit variation than industry effects. Two uncertainties, digital adoption and highway regulation, form four scenarios, such as "Digital Main Street," with fast adoption and stable rules. No-regrets moves include converting the 60 busiest city faces to digital; options include securing permits for new sites before rules tighten; the big bet is a self-service platform for small advertisers to buy digital slots.
Where the marks sit in the MGT 570 Module 2 rubric
Readers of a scenario paper look for three things: trends that can be forecast kept apart from genuine unknowns, research on deciding under uncertainty used properly and moves that would still make sense whichever future arrives. This example uses Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie's levels to justify scenarios rather than a single forecast. Schoemaker's method gives the scenarios structure. Rumelt's evidence reminds the reader that firm choices matter more than industry fate. The scenario table and the classification of moves show how analysis becomes strategy, and the paper explains why these two uncertainties were chosen over others.
MGT 570 Module 2 help from the desk
Environmental papers often list trends without asking which are uncertain and which are predictable. Separate them. Another weakness is forecasting one future and planning only for it. Use scenarios built from two or three critical uncertainties. Name signposts that show which scenario is unfolding. Choose moves that work across scenarios, and distinguish safe moves from options and bets. Remember that firm choices often matter more than industry conditions, so the analysis should end in decisions. Finally, connect scenarios to the organization's purpose and resources. Explain why the chosen uncertainties matter more than others.
Write yours, or have the desk draft it
This paper is an original model document written by our desk, not a submitted student paper and not an official Aspen University document. Read it for the moves, then write your own to the instructions in your classroom. If you want one built to your exact prompt and rubric, the first custom sample is free and arrives in 24 to 48 hours.
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MGT 570 Module 2 questions, answered
What does MGT 570 Module 2 usually ask for?
Aspen's MGT 570 covers the external environment in this module, so an MBA paper analyzing the environment and planning under uncertainty is typical. Look at your classroom prompt.
What are the four levels of uncertainty?
Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie describe a clear-enough future, alternate futures, a range of futures and true ambiguity, each calling for different strategic approaches.
How is scenario planning done?
Schoemaker's method defines the scope, identifies trends and key uncertainties, builds consistent scenarios from them and uses the scenarios to test strategies.
Where can I find a free MGT 570 Module 2 sample paper?
The example above builds four scenarios for an outdoor advertising company and chooses no-regrets moves, options and a big bet.
Does industry or firm matter more for profits?
Rumelt found that differences among business units explained more variation in profitability than industry membership.